This freight market update October 2026 covers four changes that affect how freight moves this month. Diesel set a new weekly record of $6.529 a gallon for the week of September 21, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Canada began applying a new surtax on U.S.-origin goods on September 8. Mexico’s electronic customs value declaration, the MVE, is set to become mandatory on October 1. And truckload carriers are still rejecting more than one in eight contracted loads.
Here’s what changed, what it means for your lanes, and what to confirm before you book. If you’re catching up, our August market update explains how the market got here.
Key figures in this freight market update October 2026
Truckload capacity stays tight heading into October
The Outbound Tender Reject Index, or OTRI, measures how often carriers turn down loads that shippers tender to them under contract. It held at 13.45% as of September 10, significantly above the same period in prior years, according to FreightWaves SONAR data. That points to a tight truckload market, even as spot rates eased back from a Labor Day surge.
Demand has been softer than the rejection rate alone suggests. SONAR’s tender volume index has run lower since mid-July, which FreightWaves analyst Zach Strickland attributed partly to shippers moving long-haul freight to intermodal and rail. Lean inventories are the variable to watch. If holiday demand arrives while stock is thin, more freight could move to expedited trucking later in the quarter, when intermodal is a less practical substitute.
For forwarders and shippers, the practical read is that capacity has not loosened the way it often does after Labor Day. Confirming carrier availability early, and booking through a vetted carrier network, still matters heading into Q4.
Diesel sets a new record above $6.50 a gallon
Diesel has climbed for three straight weeks. The EIA’s national on-highway average rose from $5.599 a gallon for the week of August 31 to $6.529 for the week of September 21, a gain of about 93 cents. The week of September 7 already topped the previous weekly high of $5.810, set in June 2022.
For shippers, the national average matters less than how your fuel surcharge responds to it. Surcharge formulas vary. Some reference a specific EIA week, some use a regional price, and some lag the published figure by a week or more. With the index moving 24 to 37 cents a week in September, this is a good month to confirm your contract’s index, baseline and reset schedule.
A temporary hours-of-service waiver for fuel haulers
On September 16, FMCSA issued a waiver for carriers transporting gasoline and diesel that runs through December 16, 2026. Covered drivers can operate up to 16 hours within a 24-hour period, compared with 14 under the standard rules, as long as they take required rest breaks. Carriers with a conditional safety rating or an active out-of-service order don’t qualify. The waiver applies to fuel haulers only and does not change the rules for general freight.
Canada’s new surtax on U.S.-origin goods
Since September 8, 2026, certain goods imported into Canada that originate in the United States are subject to a surtax of 15%, 25% or 50% of the value for duty, under the United States Surtax Order (2026). The Canada Border Services Agency set out the operating rules in Customs Notice 26-23. Canada introduced the measure in response to U.S. Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods.
| Schedule of the Order | Surtax rate | Calculated on |
|---|---|---|
| Schedule 1 | 15% | Value for duty |
| Schedule 2 | 25% | Value for duty |
| Schedule 3 | 50% | Value for duty |
A few details matter if you move freight into Canada:
- Origin decides it, not routing. The surtax applies to goods eligible to be marked as U.S. goods under Canada’s CUSMA country-of-origin marking rules, even when they’re exported to Canada from a third country.
- Some goods are exempt. Goods classified under Chapters 98 and 99 are exempt unless the tariff item is listed in Schedule 4 of the Order.
- Surtaxes don’t stack with the steel derivative order. Where both could apply, only the United States Surtax Order (2026) surtax applies.
- It’s declared on the Commercial Accounting Declaration. Your customs broker’s workflow needs to flag covered goods so the surtax is reported correctly.
If you have freight on a Canada-bound lane, ask your customs broker to confirm product classification and origin documentation before the next shipment moves. GLT coordinates the transportation side and does not provide customs or tax advice.
Mexico’s MVE: what the October 1 date means
Mexico’s Manifestación de Valor Electrónica, or MVE, is the electronic declaration importers use to support the customs value of their goods. After three extensions, SAT and ANAM extended the transition period to September 30, 2026, which makes electronic filing mandatory from October 1.
Some transitional flexibility continues through December 31, 2026. During that period, importers can file format E15 with the general details of related contracts instead of transmitting the full contracts. Transport documents, proof of origin and guarantee documents don’t need to be transmitted separately when they’re attached to the pedimento.
Coverage of the resolution published in Mexico’s Diario Oficial in late September has not been uniform, and at least one outlet reported a further delay into 2027. Specialist advisers read the published text as keeping the October 1 date. Because the date has moved several times, it’s worth confirming the current requirement with your customs broker before each shipment.
Five checks help in the final stretch:
- E.firma validity. Confirm the importer’s e.firma is active and test it. The filing belongs to the importer, not the customs broker.
- Invoice and customs value alignment. The declared value needs to match the commercial invoice, including incrementables such as freight and insurance.
- Incoterms documentation. The agreed Incoterm affects what gets added to customs value, so document it clearly.
- Supporting documentation. Keep contracts and supporting records organized and available for customs review, even where the transitional facilities apply.
- Broker coordination. Confirm your broker’s COVE-to-MVE workflow is ready, with realistic lead times for information requests.
GLT is not a customs broker and does not give legal or tax advice. For the documents involved in cross-border moves, see our Mexico cross-border shipping documentation guide.
What this means for forwarders and shippers
Each item in this freight market update October 2026 lands a little differently depending on your role.
For freight forwarders
Confirm each carrier’s fuel surcharge index and reset schedule before quoting new business this month, since a stale assumption shows up directly in your margin. Check whether any Canada-bound freight you’re arranging involves U.S.-origin goods on the surtax schedules, and flag those loads for documentation review. For Mexico-bound freight, ask your importer clients whether their MVE process has been tested.
For shippers
Build the current fuel environment into Q4 budgets rather than assuming a return to summer levels. If you import into Canada, bring your customs team in now on country-of-origin documentation for anything that could fall under the new schedules. If you’re the importer of record on Mexico-bound freight, confirm your MVE readiness with your broker before your next crossing.
Freight market update October 2026: quick answers
Where professional support helps
The changes in this freight market update October 2026 all land in the same few weeks: fuel surcharge clauses, Canada-bound documentation and Mexico’s MVE readiness. GLT Logistics coordinates freight across the U.S., Mexico and Canada with vetted carriers, and helps clients line up the transportation details before a shipment moves. If any of these changes affect freight you have booked, our Mexico freight services team can walk through what changed for your lane.
Ready to Plan Your Q4 Freight?
Planning October freight around a fuel surcharge review, a Canada-bound shipment or an MVE check? Share your lanes and dates, and a member of our team will follow up directly.
Freight Market Update October 2026.
