Capacity Tightened, and Rates Followed

The clearest read on capacity comes straight from FreightWaves’ own SONAR data: the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index climbed to 17.64% on June 21, 2026 — its highest level since March 2022 — a sign carriers are turning down more contracted freight to chase spot rates instead. In the same report, FreightWaves described its SONAR National Truckload Index (NTI) reading of $3.78 per mile on June 28 as an all-time high, with the spot-to-contract spread widening to roughly $0.51 per mile — the widest gap since 2021.

The bottom line for shippers

Some carriers are responding to the tighter market by seeking mid-year pricing adjustments or reopening selected lanes through mini-bids. If your routing guide was built on Q1 numbers, expect it to keep breaking through the rest of Q3.

Fuel Relief Is Real, but It’s Not the Whole Story

Diesel has eased from its spring peak, and fuel surcharges have followed it down. That’s genuine relief — but it’s relief from an unusually high baseline, not a return to normal. Diesel is still running well above its pre-disruption level from earlier this year, and load-to-truck ratios remain well above last year, per that same market report, and the underlying situation stays fragile: Gulf shipping is still working through a backlog of several hundred vessels, and the EIA’s own June outlook was cautious about how quickly that clears.

Underneath the fuel story, the physical capacity problem hasn’t gone anywhere — that’s a structural issue tied to driver wages, insurance, and maintenance costs, not something that unwinds when diesel does.

New Canada Tariffs Take Effect August 19

On July 20, the White House invoked Section 338 to impose an additional 50% tariff on certain Canadian products identified in the proclamation’s Annex II, effective August 19, 2026. For cross-border shippers, the key step is to verify whether each product’s HTS classification falls within the covered categories or an applicable exclusion.

If you move freight across the northern border, this is the kind of change that reshuffles landed-cost math overnight for anything that isn’t explicitly excluded. Waiting until the 19th to check your product categories against the exclusion list isn’t a plan.

• Get your HS codes checked against the Section 338 exclusion list now, not after the effective date.
• Confirm which SKUs fall inside Annex II versus which qualify for an exclusion — the difference changes landed cost immediately.
• A broker who knows the corridor can tell you in a day what a general customs search will take a week to untangle.

USMCA Review Adds Uncertainty to Every Cross-Border Lane

On July 1, 2026, USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer said the U.S. did not agree to renew USMCA in its current form — in USTR’s own words, “the USMCA is not renewed.” That doesn’t end the agreement — it remains in force. Under Article 34.7.4, the parties will now conduct annual joint reviews unless they agree to extend the agreement before its scheduled expiration in 2036. The U.S. and Mexico had a third round of bilateral talks scheduled in Mexico City the week of July 20, with automotive rules of origin, steel and aluminum, and economic security named as priority issues; Canada was not confirmed for that round.

Mexico isn’t standing still either. Earlier this year, under Plan México, the government layered on its own decree adding tariffs of 5% to 35% across roughly 185 HS codes, alongside reforms to customs law and its value-declaration (Manifestación de Valor) framework — part of a broader push to protect domestic manufacturing in sectors like textiles, footwear, and steel ahead of the USMCA review. On the ground, this is already showing up in lane-level pricing: Laredo–Bajío is running tighter than the rest of the U.S.-Mexico network, even as Canada-U.S. capacity stays comparatively available. (Traffix Q2 Freight Market Update August 2026, via FreightWaves)

LTL Is Reshuffling, and That’s an Opportunity

As truckload rates climb, some shippers are shifting freight into LTL and intermodal. LTL networks are seeing steadier demand as shippers hunt for a cheaper mode, and ACT Research forecasts total intermodal volume will hit 15.6 million loads in 2026 — a new record, topping the previous high set in 2018.

At the same time, the LTL carrier map is shifting under that demand, not just growing to meet it. Mountain Valley Express, a regional LTL carrier out of Manteca, California, shut down operations on July 7, 2026 — one of several smaller players that couldn’t scale through the prolonged freight downturn. At the other end, Amazon has entered LTL directly, and larger carriers are leaning on national terminal networks as a differentiator. For shippers, that combination of rising demand and consolidating capacity means the LTL carrier worth trusting in Q4 isn’t necessarily the one you trusted in Q1 — vet the network, not just the rate sheet.

Florida Watch: What Shippers Should Know This Month

Two things are converging on Florida lanes right now, and both are worth knowing regardless of who you ship with.

Reefer capacity is tight

Florida reefer capacity can tighten during seasonal demand peaks, particularly when retail replenishment and temperature-controlled distribution compete with broader national demand. If you run temperature-controlled freight in or out of Florida, budget extra lead time this quarter.

A record port year meets peak hurricane season

PortMiami just posted a record year, and hurricane season is about to peak. PortMiami closed fiscal year 2025 at 1,115,058 TEUs, up 2.35% and its 11th consecutive year above one million TEUs, with a second phase of electric gantry crane upgrades adding stacking capacity at the South Florida Container Terminal. That’s good news for throughput — but it lands right as the Atlantic hurricane season moves into its most active window. NOAA’s 2026 outlook gives a 55% chance of a below-normal season, against 35% for near-normal and 10% for above-normal — but a below-normal season isn’t a low-risk one; it only takes one storm making landfall near a port or a drayage yard to stall freight for weeks.

A More Predictable Option for LAX–Miami FTL

Many of the challenges above — especially tightening capacity and rising spot rates — point to the same need: predictable routing instead of relying on last-minute capacity. GLT runs one lane built exactly for that: Los Angeles to Miami, full truckload (FTL) only — not LTL, not a shared network.

Frequently Asked Questions